Obsession: Oscar Prospects
© Focus Features
Word-of-mouth has spread and it certainly is high quality, but does Obsession have enough petrol in the tank to make a splash at the Oscars?
Grossing more than $400 million worldwide on an estimated $750,000 budget, Curry Barker’s impressive feature debut has made the kind of impact he could perhaps have only dreamed of. The Obsession fandom is a broad church, with horror fans sitting alongside feminists sitting next to film snobs. Think pieces abound online, with comment sections filled with people angry at those who think Bear is a sympathetic character.
Premiering in September 2025 at TIFF, Focus Features might have predicted it would be a great commercial play for them, but the closer we march to Awards season, it’s becoming apparent that it might also prove to be a surprising minor awards player, too.
Oscar Chances:
Inde Navarrette (Best Actress *or* Best Supporting Actress)
© Focus Features
We don’t know exactly where she will be campaigning at time of writing, but Inde Navarrette’s brilliant portrayal of Nikki, a woman locked inside herself by a man’s cursed wish, stands to be the key to Obsession’s broader Oscar chances.
It’s a loud and obvious performance, but the physicality of the role mixed with her ability to walk the tonal tightrope of her character is sure to be a hit with some voters. Personally, I think she’s a lead actress, but the argument in favour of her being a supporting player is her character lacking agency; it’s Bear’s story and Bear’s perspective after all.
It’s obviously too early in the season to call, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see her appear in a Best Actress race against the likes of Julianne Moore, Sandra Hüller and Michelle Williams. She’s a good chance.
Best Picture
Now we get into the outside chances. Are the Academy really going to acknowledge a horror film like this among its Best Picture nominees? Sure, Sinners had 16 nominations last year, but that’s a horror-musical helmed by Ryan Coogler. Curry Barker’s small budget effort has a lot of ground to make up. But the new academy might just be swayed by its social messaging and the particularly excellent performance from Navarrette.
If Navarrette misses a nomination and isn’t much of a factor throughout the other Oscar precursors, then we can kiss the hopes of a Best Picture nomination goodbye.
Best Original Screenplay (Curry Barker)
There is surprising depth to Barker’s screenplay and, again, it would require Navarrette being an awards star, but Barker’s script might also come along for the ride.
On its surface, it’s a pretty straight-forward story, but the way the tension gradually ratchets, as Bear gradually learns his fate but continues to slimily avoid accountability as the people around him are hurt by his (in)actions, it comes to a satisfying crescendo.
It’s certainly an outside chance of a nomination, but it’s not outside the realms of possibility.
Best Casting
??
We’re just guessing with this category, aren’t we? The only evidence we have so far is that One Battle After Another won this and Best Picture last year, so Best Casting probably is reserved for Best Picture frontrunners, which this almost certainly won’t be.
Still, if there was going to be a film that gets some casting recognition for one of the great breakout performances of the year, this one might sneak into that 4th or 5th slot.
Bo Nicholson is a co-founder of Punch & Pie Media and the host of ‘Academy Watch’, the network’s Oscars podcast.
